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GDP Surprises In Nov Before A Soft Dec

CANADA DATA
  • Real GDP was stronger than expected in Nov with an upward revised +0.6% M/M (cons +0.4%) but was followed by a soft Dec which was seen as “essentially unchanged”.
  • “Widespread increases led by the manufacturing, agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, utilities and wholesale trade sectors were offset by declines in the accommodation and food services, mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction and retail trade sectors.”
  • The advanced information for Dec “indicates a 1.6% uptick in the fourth quarter of 2021 and a rebound of 4.9% in the year following the pandemic-induced decline observed in 2020", stronger than the 4.6% the BoC forecast for 2021 in the Jan’22 MPR.
  • Market reaction: There was a small sell-off in GoCs but this was muddied by the Fed’s Harker speaking at the same time (4x25bp hikes this year appropriate, having previously called for 3). USDCAD down less than 10 pips at 1.269, -0.1% on the day.
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