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US DATA: GDPNow Little Swayed By Data Beats But Still Strong At 3%

US DATA
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  • The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow for Q4 was unrevised at 3.0% annualized (only lifted from 2.96 to 2.99 unrounded) despite stronger than expected and strong bounces for housing starts and industrial production.
  • A modest upward revision for personal consumption was offset by a slightly larger inventory drag.
  • The next update isn’t until Jan 28 in what will be the penultimate estimate before the advance Q4 release on Jan 30.
  • It implies further robust real GDP growth after the 3.1% in Q3 and 3.0% in Q2.
  • Domestic demand contributions continue to look strong, pointing to 3.4pp after the 3.7pp in Q3 was the strongest since 1Q23.
  • Within that, consumer spending is seen adding 2.5pp in Q4 to match the strong 2.5pp in Q3. 
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Source: Atlanta Fed
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  • The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow for Q4 was unrevised at 3.0% annualized (only lifted from 2.96 to 2.99 unrounded) despite stronger than expected and strong bounces for housing starts and industrial production.
  • A modest upward revision for personal consumption was offset by a slightly larger inventory drag.
  • The next update isn’t until Jan 28 in what will be the penultimate estimate before the advance Q4 release on Jan 30.
  • It implies further robust real GDP growth after the 3.1% in Q3 and 3.0% in Q2.
  • Domestic demand contributions continue to look strong, pointing to 3.4pp after the 3.7pp in Q3 was the strongest since 1Q23.
  • Within that, consumer spending is seen adding 2.5pp in Q4 to match the strong 2.5pp in Q3. 
image
Source: Atlanta Fed