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POWER: German DA Holds Premium to France, May Flip to Discount for 31 Jan

POWER
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As anticipated in yesterday's MNI analysis, German and French spot prices continued to rise, with Germany maintaining its premium over France. However, for 31 Jan delivery, Germany may shift to a discount compared to France, driven by higher load factors of wind and forecasts for a decline in power consumption. Meanwhile, French demand is expected to increase, creating a divergence in consumption patterns between the two countries.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €131.53/MWh from €108.14/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €107.86/MWh from €72.77/MWh on the previous day.
  • Germany was at a €23.67/MWh premium from a €35.37/MWh premium in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to fall to 13.01GW during base load on Thursday, down from 28.71GW on Wednesday, according to SpotRenewables.
  • Wind will then be at 13.53GW, or 21% load factor the next day.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to decline to 60.65GW on Thursday, down from 61.16GW on Wednesday amid mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecasts to decline to 6C on Thursday from 7.2C on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg.
  • German demand will then be at 59.63GW on 31 January.
  • Residual load in Germany is forecast to increase to 44.49GWh/h on Thursday, up from 25.68GWh/h on Wednesday according to Reuters.
  • In contrast, wind output in France is forecast to decrease to 5.74GW during base load on Thursday, down from 11.01GW on Wednesday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Wind will then be at 2.61GW, or a 11% load factor on 31 January.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to increase to 64.45GW on Thursday, from 63.34GW on Wednesday as mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to decline to 6.2C on Thursday, from 7.3C on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg.
  • French power demand will then be at 66.46GW the next day.
  • Residual load in France is forecast to increase to 56.29GWh/h on Thursday, up from 50.19GWh/h on Wednesday according to Reuters.
  • Nuclear availability in France increased to 86% of capacity as of Wednesday morning, up from 81% on Tuesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg. 
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As anticipated in yesterday's MNI analysis, German and French spot prices continued to rise, with Germany maintaining its premium over France. However, for 31 Jan delivery, Germany may shift to a discount compared to France, driven by higher load factors of wind and forecasts for a decline in power consumption. Meanwhile, French demand is expected to increase, creating a divergence in consumption patterns between the two countries.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €131.53/MWh from €108.14/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €107.86/MWh from €72.77/MWh on the previous day.
  • Germany was at a €23.67/MWh premium from a €35.37/MWh premium in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to fall to 13.01GW during base load on Thursday, down from 28.71GW on Wednesday, according to SpotRenewables.
  • Wind will then be at 13.53GW, or 21% load factor the next day.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to decline to 60.65GW on Thursday, down from 61.16GW on Wednesday amid mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecasts to decline to 6C on Thursday from 7.2C on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg.
  • German demand will then be at 59.63GW on 31 January.
  • Residual load in Germany is forecast to increase to 44.49GWh/h on Thursday, up from 25.68GWh/h on Wednesday according to Reuters.
  • In contrast, wind output in France is forecast to decrease to 5.74GW during base load on Thursday, down from 11.01GW on Wednesday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Wind will then be at 2.61GW, or a 11% load factor on 31 January.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to increase to 64.45GW on Thursday, from 63.34GW on Wednesday as mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to decline to 6.2C on Thursday, from 7.3C on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg.
  • French power demand will then be at 66.46GW the next day.
  • Residual load in France is forecast to increase to 56.29GWh/h on Thursday, up from 50.19GWh/h on Wednesday according to Reuters.
  • Nuclear availability in France increased to 86% of capacity as of Wednesday morning, up from 81% on Tuesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.