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POWER: German DA Narrows Premium to FR, Likely to Continue for 19 Feb Delivery

POWER
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German and French day-ahead prices fell, driven by higher wind generation in both regions, easing delivery costs. While demand remained steady, the German day-ahead price narrowed its premium over France due to a drop in French nuclear availability. This trend is likely to continue for 19 Feb delivery amid Germany seeing slightly higher wind load factors than France.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €132.45/MWh from €153.42/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €130.18/MWh from €144.88/MWh on the previous day.
  • Germany was at a €2.27/MWh premium from a €8.54/MWh premium in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to rise to 8.85GW during base load on Tuesday, up from 3.88GW on Monday, according to SpotRenewables.
  • Wind output in Germany will then be at 18.69GW, or 29% load factor on 19 February (Wed) – which could see prices fall from the previous session.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to rise to 62.88GW on Tuesday, up from 61.57GW on Monday amid mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecast to edge higher to -0.5C on Tuesday, compared with -0.9C on Monday and below the seasonal average of 4.3C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Power demand will then be at 63.04GW on 19 February.
  • Residual load in Germany is forecast to fall to 47.01GWh/h on Tuesday, down from 50.92GWh/h on Monday according to Reuters.
  • In contrast, wind output in France is forecast to rise to 5.77GW during base load on Tuesday, up from 2.92GW on Monday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Wind will then remain firm the next day to be at a 24% load factor, or 5.78GW on 19 February.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to be broadly stable on the day at 67.22GW on Tuesday, compared with 67.28GW on Monday as mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to edge up to 2.9C on Tuesday, up from 2.1C on Monday and below the seasonal average of 5.3C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Power demand will then be at 65.52GW on 19 February.
  • Nuclear availability in France declined to 80% of capacity as of Monday morning, down from 84% on Friday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • EdF has extended the unplanned outage at its 1.62GW Flamanville 3 nuke to 26 February from 20 February, latest Remit data show.
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German and French day-ahead prices fell, driven by higher wind generation in both regions, easing delivery costs. While demand remained steady, the German day-ahead price narrowed its premium over France due to a drop in French nuclear availability. This trend is likely to continue for 19 Feb delivery amid Germany seeing slightly higher wind load factors than France.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €132.45/MWh from €153.42/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €130.18/MWh from €144.88/MWh on the previous day.
  • Germany was at a €2.27/MWh premium from a €8.54/MWh premium in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to rise to 8.85GW during base load on Tuesday, up from 3.88GW on Monday, according to SpotRenewables.
  • Wind output in Germany will then be at 18.69GW, or 29% load factor on 19 February (Wed) – which could see prices fall from the previous session.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to rise to 62.88GW on Tuesday, up from 61.57GW on Monday amid mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecast to edge higher to -0.5C on Tuesday, compared with -0.9C on Monday and below the seasonal average of 4.3C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Power demand will then be at 63.04GW on 19 February.
  • Residual load in Germany is forecast to fall to 47.01GWh/h on Tuesday, down from 50.92GWh/h on Monday according to Reuters.
  • In contrast, wind output in France is forecast to rise to 5.77GW during base load on Tuesday, up from 2.92GW on Monday according to SpotRenewables.
  • Wind will then remain firm the next day to be at a 24% load factor, or 5.78GW on 19 February.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to be broadly stable on the day at 67.22GW on Tuesday, compared with 67.28GW on Monday as mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to edge up to 2.9C on Tuesday, up from 2.1C on Monday and below the seasonal average of 5.3C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Power demand will then be at 65.52GW on 19 February.
  • Nuclear availability in France declined to 80% of capacity as of Monday morning, down from 84% on Friday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • EdF has extended the unplanned outage at its 1.62GW Flamanville 3 nuke to 26 February from 20 February, latest Remit data show.