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POWER: German Spot Power to Fall

POWER
CEEMEAEurozoneEnergy BulletsGermanyBulletPower BulletsCommodities

The German spot power index is expected to fall with forecasts for higher wind output on Tuesday. German front-month power is pulling back with losses in EUAs and an upward revision in wind forecasts, weighed against forecasts suggesting temperatures to be colder for longer.  

  • Germany Base Power MAR 25 down 0.8% at 105.39 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 1.6% at 82.6 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas MAR 25 down 0.1% at 53.2 EUR/MWh
  • German Spark Spreads M1  down 5.4% at -16.1192 EUR/MWh
  • German Spark Spreads M1 (March) down 263.5% at -13.8192 EUR/MWh
  • TTF front month is back near previous close levels after an initial rally to the highest since Oct. 2023 at €54.8/MWh as oil prices rose in reaction to US trade tariffs.  US President Trump again threatened the EU with tariffs. Concerns for low storage and cool temperatures in early Feb are supporting prices.
  • EU ETS December 2025 allowances are pulling back on Monday following US President Trump’s announcement to impose tariffs on several nations and warnings that he will impose similar tariffs on the EU. Downside is limited by forecasts for colder-for-longer weather and some gains in EU gas prices. The next EU ETS CAP3 auction will clear today 11:00CET.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to increase to 10.05GW during base load on Tuesday, up from 3.21GW on Monday. German wind generation forecasts for this week have been revised higher from Friday’s forecasts according to SpotRenewables.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for Dusseldorf suggests mean temperatures will remain below the seasonal normal on most days until at least 18 February.
  • Mean temperatures in Dusseldorf are forecast to rise to 2C on Tuesday, up from 0.8C on Monday and below the seasonal average of 3.3C.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to rise to 60.19GW on Tuesday, up from 59.16GW on Monday according to Bloomberg.
  • Residual load in Germany is forecast to decline to 44.7GWh/h on Tuesday, down from 50.96GWh/h on Monday according to Reuters.
  • Germany’s hydro balance has been revised higher from Friday’s forecasts to end at -172GWh on 17 February.
  • RWE’s 1.05GW Neurath 4 lignite plant had an unplanned outage late on 1 February that is scheduled until Tuesday morning.
  • Uniper’s 1.05GW Datten 4 coal-fired plant is still scheduled to return on Wednesday, after a fire caused the plant to halt in October. 
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The German spot power index is expected to fall with forecasts for higher wind output on Tuesday. German front-month power is pulling back with losses in EUAs and an upward revision in wind forecasts, weighed against forecasts suggesting temperatures to be colder for longer.  

  • Germany Base Power MAR 25 down 0.8% at 105.39 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 1.6% at 82.6 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas MAR 25 down 0.1% at 53.2 EUR/MWh
  • German Spark Spreads M1  down 5.4% at -16.1192 EUR/MWh
  • German Spark Spreads M1 (March) down 263.5% at -13.8192 EUR/MWh
  • TTF front month is back near previous close levels after an initial rally to the highest since Oct. 2023 at €54.8/MWh as oil prices rose in reaction to US trade tariffs.  US President Trump again threatened the EU with tariffs. Concerns for low storage and cool temperatures in early Feb are supporting prices.
  • EU ETS December 2025 allowances are pulling back on Monday following US President Trump’s announcement to impose tariffs on several nations and warnings that he will impose similar tariffs on the EU. Downside is limited by forecasts for colder-for-longer weather and some gains in EU gas prices. The next EU ETS CAP3 auction will clear today 11:00CET.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to increase to 10.05GW during base load on Tuesday, up from 3.21GW on Monday. German wind generation forecasts for this week have been revised higher from Friday’s forecasts according to SpotRenewables.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for Dusseldorf suggests mean temperatures will remain below the seasonal normal on most days until at least 18 February.
  • Mean temperatures in Dusseldorf are forecast to rise to 2C on Tuesday, up from 0.8C on Monday and below the seasonal average of 3.3C.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to rise to 60.19GW on Tuesday, up from 59.16GW on Monday according to Bloomberg.
  • Residual load in Germany is forecast to decline to 44.7GWh/h on Tuesday, down from 50.96GWh/h on Monday according to Reuters.
  • Germany’s hydro balance has been revised higher from Friday’s forecasts to end at -172GWh on 17 February.
  • RWE’s 1.05GW Neurath 4 lignite plant had an unplanned outage late on 1 February that is scheduled until Tuesday morning.
  • Uniper’s 1.05GW Datten 4 coal-fired plant is still scheduled to return on Wednesday, after a fire caused the plant to halt in October.