MNI GLOBAL MORNING BRIEFING: Emergency NATO Summit Planned

Friday's data schedule is packed with releases across the Eurozone and US. This morning sees retail, import prices and GDP in Germany, followed by French CPI/PPI, consumer spending and GDP, alongside and Spanish PPI.

The Eurozone M3 and economic/consumer confidence are due this morning, as well as Italian consumer/manufacturing sentiment. In the afternoon, the focus will be on US personal income and spending as well as durable goods orders.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine will remain the key focus as the situation remains critical. Analysts are already postulating an upside risk of +1.5-2.0% to Eurozone inflation due to the associated increase in already soaring energy prices. The ECB is not due to meet formally until March 10 and developments in the crisis remain unforeseeable.

German and France Final Q4 GDP Prints (0700GMT/0745 GMT)

In both Germany and France, today’s final Q4 GDP print is expected to confirm flash readings. This sees German GDP at a contraction of -0.7% q/q and slowed growth of 1.4% y/y, whilst French GDP is to be confirmed at +0.7% q/q and +5.4% y/y for Q4 largely on the back fixed investment, following a steep slowdown in household and government spending. The German GDP will shed light upon the extent to which the dip in private consumption and construction investment was responsible for the contraction.

French Flash CPI and Consumer Spending (0745 GMT)

The flash HICP is projected to accelerate to +3.7% y/y in February (+3.3% y/y non-harmonised), up from +3.3% y/y (+2.9% y/y non-harmonised) in January. This would represent a fresh 2008-high for French headline inflation, whereby energy price inflation remained the key driver, followed by upticks in services and food prices. On the month, inflation is seen strengthening to +0.5% m/m, quickening from +0.2% m/m last month.

French consumer spending is seen contracting for the third consecutive month to -0.8% m/m, in January, as demand softened due to the surge in Covid cases which peaked late January.

Spanish PPI (0800 GMT)

Today’s Spanish PPI reading will give an indication of whether factory-gate inflationary pressures are beginning to ease in January. Spanish factory-gate inflation continued to soar in December, hitting 35.9% y/y and once again setting new record highs since the data set began in 1976. Both energy prices and intermediate goods broke fresh records in the latest print.

Italian Business /Consumer Confidence (0900 GMT)

Italian economic sentiment indexes are projected to remain relatively stable for February, with consumer confidence improving marginally to 114.4 from the January dip of 114.2 on account of both uncertainty regarding the presidential election and increased Covid infections. Manufacturing confidence is expected to edge downwards to a four-month low of 113.5 from 113.9.

US Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income / Personal Spending (1330 GMT)

The flash print for US durable goods is expected to rebound to +1.0% m/m growth in January, following the -0.7% m/m contraction seen in December. The dip in both transportation and aircraft sales is expected to rebound in January and constitute a key upwards driver.

Analysts are projecting a divergence in US personal income and spending growth for January, with personal income seen slumping to -0.3% m/m in January following a +0.3% increase in December largely due to employment compensation growth, despite a slowdown in government transfers. Spending is expected to expand substantially to +1.6% m/m, from -0.6% m/m in December, where the decline in goods expenditure outweighed stronger spending on services.

World leaders will continue to discuss the ongoing Ukraine crisis today, with the key focus being the emergency virtual NATO summit. MNI markets teams will be posting real-time coverage on developments throughout the day.

The Eurogroup/EU Economic Finance Ministers' meeting will take place 0945-1330GMT (presser at 1400GMT), bumped up from Saturday, and is set to specifically discuss conclusions of EU Council emergency summit, with focus on energy. Today’s scheduled key policymaker appearances are the ECB’s Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos and Fabio Panetta taking part in the Ecofin/Eurogroup meetings, as well as the BOE’s Huw Pill at the Bank of England BEAR conference. Where available, links to events are in the calendar below.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
25/02/2022	0001/0001	**		UK	Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence
24/02/2022	0125/2025			US	Fed Governor Christopher Waller
25/02/2022	0700/0800	**		SE	PPI
25/02/2022	0700/0800	***		DE	GDP (f)
25/02/2022	0745/0845	***		FR	HICP (p)
25/02/2022	0745/0845	**		FR	Consumer Spending
25/02/2022	0745/0845	***		FR	GDP (f)
25/02/2022	0745/0845	**		FR	PPI
25/02/2022	0800/0900	**		ES	PPI
25/02/2022	0900/1000	**		IT	ISTAT Business Confidence
25/02/2022	0900/1000	**		IT	ISTAT Consumer Confidence
25/02/2022	0900/1000	**		EU	M3
25/02/2022	0900/1000	*		NO	Norway Unemployment Rate
25/02/2022	1000/1100	*		EU	Business Climate Indicator
25/02/2022	1000/1100	**		EU	Economic Sentiment Indicator
25/02/2022	1000/1100	*		EU	Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment
25/02/2022	1115/1215			EU	ECB Lagarde at Eurogroup Press Conference
25/02/2022	-			EU	ECB Lagarde & Panetta at Eurogroup meeting
25/02/2022	-			EU	ECB Lagarde & de Guindos at ECOFIN meeting
25/02/2022	1330/0830	**		US	durable goods new orders
25/02/2022	1330/0830	**		US	Personal Income and Consumption
25/02/2022	1330/0830	*		CA	Capital and repair expenditure survey
25/02/2022	1500/1000	**		US	NAR pending home sales
25/02/2022	1500/1000	***		US	Final Michigan Sentiment Index
25/02/2022	1600/1100			CA	Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected)
25/02/2022	1800/1800			UK	BOE Pill unwinding QE remarks at BEAR Conference