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Monday will be relatively light on the data front, following on from the previous 7 day which saw the ECB, BOE and RBA policy meetings and a very strong U.S. employment report.
The Bank of England MPC hiked the Bank Rate 25 bp to 0.5% at its February meeting, although four of the nine members voted for a 50 bps hike, making it clear another increase could come shortly. If the economy evolved as expected "some further modest tightening in monetary policy was likely to be appropriate in the coming months," the minutes of the February meeting said.
The ECB meeting saw consensus confirm no adjustment to policy, however there was a notable shift in rhetoric, with President Lagarde refusing to rule out raising rates in 2022, stating that inflation risks were tilted to the upside. She reiterated that the triple lock of conditions must be met before a hike could come into play.
The RBA left rates on hold, but ended its programme of QE, although saying it would remain patient before moving to hike rates.
The points of interest today include Swiss unemployment, followed by UK Halifax house prices and German Industrial Production
Swiss Unemployment Seen Stabilising (0645 GMT)
The SA Swiss unemployment rate is forecast at 2.4% in January, plateauing at the strong December rate, sitting just above the 2019 pre-pandemic average rate of 2.3%. The rate has been edging lower since the May 2020 pandemic-peak of 3.5%. The Swiss economy has shown considerable resilience through Covid, largely down to a diversified small economy with little reliance on customer-facing services.
UK Halifax House Prices Seen Higher Again (0700 GMT)
House prices in the UK rose 9.8% in 2021, with the average UK property price reaching a record high. UK house prices increased for the sixth consecutive month in December, up 1.1% m/m. Halifax attributes the tight UK housing market to factors including higher saving due to covid restrictions, increased demand for work-from-home space and income support boosting confidence.
German Industrial Production to Weaken (0700 GMT)
German IP is expected to fall again in December, contracting for the fifth consecutive month to -3.6% y/y from -2.4% y/y in November. On the month, a slight recovery to +0.5% m/m is forecasted, up from -0.2% m/m in the previous month. The German industrial sector remains unstable, with production hampered by persistent raw material shortages and supply disruptions.
Today’s noteworthy key policymaker appearance is ECB President Lagarde, appearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the EU Parliament. Click on the calendar below for the event link.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 07/02/2022 | 0645/0745 | ** |  | CH | Unemployment |
| 07/02/2022 | 0700/0800 | ** |  | DE | Industrial Production |
| 07/02/2022 | 0700/0700 | * |  | UK | Halifax House Price Index |
| 07/02/2022 | 1545/1645 |  | EU | ECB Lagarde Intro at ECON EU Parliament | |
| 07/02/2022 | 1630/1130 | * |  | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 07/02/2022 | 1630/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 07/02/2022 | 2000/1500 | * | | US | Consumer Credit |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.