Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
The week kicks off with a round of final manufacturing PMIs, with first and final prints due in Spain and Italy.
The BOE is set to meet on Thursday, with markets now pricing in a 50bp hike., and outside option risks of both 25bp and 75bp are small but not impossible.
Germany Retail Sales (0700 BST)
German retail sales are set to see a June slowdown, with +0.3% m/m from +0.6% m/m. Following Friday’s flash Q2 GDP data which saw the German economy stall, significant downside risks could materialise.
Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMIs
A common theme across major economies has been dampened demand, evident in a slowdown in new orders and production, feeding into lower order backlogs. Movement in prices paid indicators will again be closely watched.
Spain (0815 BST): The Spanish manufacturing PMI is anticipated to decline for the second consecutive month, this time by 2.6 points to the break-even mark of 50.0. The last time the indicator dipped into contractive territory was in January 2021 due to covid resurgence.
Italy (0845 BST): Italy is expected to see a manufacturing contraction in the July PMI, seen slipping by 1.9 points from the current June 2020 low to 49.0. This would represent the weakest manufacturing PMI of the key eurozone economies.
France, Germany and the Eurozone aggregate are all set to confirm July flash prints ranging between 49.2-49.6, whilst things look somewhat sunnier in the UK at 52.2.
Eurozone Unemployment (1000 BST)
The euro area unemployment rate should hold steady at the record low of 6.6% into June. Despite weakening PMIs, the tight euro area labour market, Friday’s stronger GDP flash prints (excluding Germany) and hot inflation surprises will not go unnoticed by the ECB. As such, a 50bp hike is in sight for the September meeting.
US Manufacturing PMIs (1445/1500 BST)
A confirmation of the US July S&P manufacturing PMI at 52.3 (a gentle 0.4 slowdown from June) is due, whilst the ISM manufacturing PMI (1500 BST) is anticipated to slow by 1 point to 52.0. Friday’s release of the Chicago PMI saw a 3.9-point slip to land around a similar level of 52.1 as new orders slump.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 01/08/2022 | 0600/0800 | ** |  | DE | Retail Sales |
| 01/08/2022 | 0715/0915 | ** |  | ES | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/08/2022 | 0745/0945 | ** |  | IT | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/08/2022 | 0750/0950 | ** |  | FR | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/08/2022 | 0755/0955 | ** | | DE | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/08/2022 | 0800/1000 | ** |  | EU | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/08/2022 | 0830/0930 | ** |  | UK | IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 01/08/2022 | 0900/1100 | ** | | EU | Unemployment |
| 01/08/2022 | 1345/0945 | *** |  | US | IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (final) |
| 01/08/2022 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | ISM Manufacturing Index |
| 01/08/2022 | 1400/1000 | * | | US | Construction Spending |
| 01/08/2022 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 01/08/2022 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 01/08/2022 | 1900/1500 | | US | Treasury Marketable Borrowing Estimates |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.