Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Monday’s data is focused on inflation estimates for Spain and Germany, as well as Italian and Eurozone flash GDPs.
Inflation is seen subsiding significantly in the Eurozone January prelim numbers, which would be welcome news to the ECB. Q4 GDP estimates point towards a disappointing Q4 in the region, with Germany experiencing a contraction.
Spanish Flash Inflation (0800 GMT)
Spanish flash estimates are seeing headline inflation easing significantly in January. January harmonised CPI is forecasted to contract to -1.5% m/m from +1.1%. These will be the first deflationaly readings below zero since July 2021. In the annualised forecasts, harmonised headline inflation is expected to weaked over one point to +5.5% from +6.6% in December, falling for the first time in eleven months.
Italy Flash GDP (1000 GMT)
Italian flash GDP is projected to have dampened on the quarter to +0.5% q/q from +2.6% q/q in Q3. On the year the flash reading for Italian GDP is predicted to be up +6.2% y/y for Q4, compared to a milder +3.9% in Q3.
Eurozone Flash GDP (1000 GMT)
Following suit, flash Eurozone GDP readings are contracting on the quarter, seen dipping to +0.5% q/q in Q4 from +2.6% q/q. Compared to Q4 2020, GDP growth for the Eurozone is estimated to reach +6.2% y/y from +3.9% y/y in Q3.
Germany Flash Inflation (1300 GMT)
Germany’s preliminary inflation estimate for January follows a morning of individual state inflation numbers. Germany is likely to see monthly headline CPI dipping to a deflationary -0.3% m/m in January estimate, down from +0.5% m/m in December. On the year, inflation growth is projected to weaken by one point to 4.3% y/y in January, from 5.3% y/y in December.
MNI The Chicago Business Barometer™ (1445 GMT)
The Chicago Business Barometer™ (produced by ISM and MNI) comes out this afternoon, reflecting current trends in US corporate activity. Last month’s reading was revised upwards to 64.3, picking up again after the previous month’s decline due to substantial growth in new orders.
Today's key policymaker appearances are San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly and Kansas City Fed's Esther George in the afternoon. Click on the links below to access the events.| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 31/01/2022 | 0800/0900 | *** |  | ES | HICP (p) |
| 31/01/2022 | 0900/1000 | *** |  | IT | GDP (p) |
| 31/01/2022 | 1000/1100 | *** |  | EU | GDP preliminary flash est. |
| 31/01/2022 | 1300/1400 | *** |  | DE | HICP (p) |
| 31/01/2022 | 1330/0830 | * |  | CA | Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index |
| 31/01/2022 | 1445/0945 | ** |  | US | MNI Chicago PMI |
| 31/01/2022 | 1530/1030 | ** | | US | Dallas Fed manufacturing survey |
| 31/01/2022 | 1630/1130 | | US | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly | |
| 31/01/2022 | 1630/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 31/01/2022 | 1630/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 31/01/2022 | 1740/1240 | | US | Kansas City Fed's Esther George | |
| 01/02/2022 | 2200/0900 | ** |  | AU | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.