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Following on from the RBA policy decision, the data points to watch will be German factory orders ahead of IP, with Spanish IP and the UK final services PMI also on the schedule. South Africa’s Q1 GDP should come in strong, with the US trade balance in the U.S., due early in the session, expected to narrow.
RAB Rate Decision (0530 BST)
The session kicked off with the Australian central bank's decision to hike rates by a bigger-than-expected 50 bps to 0.85%, citing inflation pressures. The RBA said it sees higher inflation from here, before falling back in to the 2 to 3% target range next year.
Looking forward, the RBA said the "size and timing of future interest rate increases will be guided by the incoming data and the Board's assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labour market. The Board is committed to doing what is necessary to ensure that inflation in Australia returns to target over time."
Germany Factory Orders (0700 BST)
Factory orders are anticipated to improve marginally to +0.5% m/m in April, following the substantially stronger than expected 4.7% m/m contraction seen in March at the onset of the Ukraine war. International orders saw a 6.7% decline, with Eurozone orders down 13.2%. The annual comparison is expected to dip 1pp further to a 4.1% y/y contraction. The April print will shed light on recovery from the initial uncertainty shock of the war.
Factory orders will foreshadow the closely watched German IP due Wednesday.
Spanish Industrial Production (0800 BST)
The Spanish IP print for April is also due Tuesday, with analysts looking for a +0.5% m/m recovery on the 1.8% m/m contraction in march March.
UK Final Services PMI (0930 BST)
Completing the services PMI round which took place on Friday, where small 01-0.3pp downwards revisions were plentiful. The UK services PMI is set to confirm the flash print of 51.8, a 7.1-point plunge for May with running costs at a series high as demand dampens on the back of soaring inflation.
South Africa GDP (1030 BST)
Robust +1.2% q/q growth is pencilled in for Q1 2022 South African growth, on par with that of Q4 2021. This translates into a +1.9% y/y expansion. Upside surprises are likely in this data, following BankservAfrica’s Economic Transactions Index implying above the 2% mark, with the surge in metal commodity prices due to the Ukraine war seeing South African mining industries’ demand boosted.
US Trade Balance (1330 BST)
The US trade balance is forecasted to narrow by around $20bln to -$89.5bln in April, following the record high seen in March as energy imports jumped by 10.3% on the back of soaring prices, despite exports reaching a record high.
There are no key policymaker appearances on today’s schedule, with the ECB in the blackout period ahead of Thursday’s rate decision.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 07/06/2022 | 0430/1430 | *** |  | AU | RBA Rate Decision |
| 07/06/2022 | 0600/0800 | ** |  | DE | Manufacturing Orders |
| 07/06/2022 | 0700/0900 | ** |  | ES | Industrial Production |
| 07/06/2022 | 0730/0930 | ** |  | EU | IHS Markit Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 07/06/2022 | 0830/0930 | ** |  | UK | IHS Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Final) |
| 07/06/2022 | 0900/1000 | ** | | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 07/06/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | CA | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) |
| 07/06/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | US | Trade Balance |
| 07/06/2022 | 1255/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 07/06/2022 | 1400/1000 | * | | CA | Ivey PMI |
| 07/06/2022 | 1700/1300 | *** | | US | US Note 03 Year Treasury Auction Result |
| 07/06/2022 | 1900/1500 | * | | US | Consumer Credit |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.