Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
The week wraps up with German industrial production in the morning, before Canadian and US labour data in the afternoon.
Recap: The first week of May kicked off with four Central Bank decisions:
- Tuesday saw the Reserve Bank of Australia deliver a larger than consensus 25bp hike (15bp expected) to 0.35%, highlighting evidence of wage growth.
- On Wednesday the FOMC hiked an expected 50bp, and revealed plans for the balance sheet runoff of $95bln per month after a softer 3-month phase in.
- On Thursday morning Norges Bank held interest rates at 0.75% as anticipated, flagging a hike coming in June. Norges Bank headed the warning that tightening could be accelerated if upside risks become substantial.
- Also Thursday the Bank of England hiked 25bp as expected to 1.0%, with a 6-3 split between 25bp and 50bp in the meeting. The forecasts were far from sunny, with Q4 2022 inflation expectations lifted to over 10% and unemployment, after hitting a trough at just under 3.5% in 2022 Q3, forecasted to rise to just under 5.5% three years ahead.
German Industrial Production (0700 BST)
German IP is expected to contract in March by -1.3% m/m and -0.4% y/y, down from +0.2% m/m and +3.2% y/y growth seen in February. Substantial downside risks are likely, following yesterday’s manufacturing orders data which saw -4.7% m/m and -3.1% y/y declines.
The March data underlines the dual hit of worsening supply chain disruptions and soaring energy prices following the onset of the Ukraine war late February.
Canadian Unemployment (1330 BST)
The April labour report for Canada sees unemployment tick down another 0.1pp to 5.2%, reaching a new series low. Net employment is projected up by 40.0k (March: 72.5k). These softer increases in employment levels highlight the Canadian labour market nearing saturation, with vaccination requirements lifted in multiple states prior to the March release.
US Unemployment (1330 BST)
The US unemployment rate is also seen at a record low in April, stepping down a further 0.1pp to 3.5%. Nonfarm payrolls are projected to expand by 380k, slowing from 431k in March to a 12-month low as the US labour market inches closer to maximum tightness. Average hourly earnings are expected to be up 5.5% y/y (0.1pp below March), implying that wage growth remains substantial.
The strength of the labour market underpinned the FOMC decision to hike 50bp yesterday, boosting further confidence in aggressive tightening to tackle inflation.
Key policymaker appearances on today's schedule include the BOE's Monetary Policy Report National Agency briefing and the BOE's Silvana Tenreyro and an afternoon packed with Fed speakers.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 06/05/2022 | 0545/0745 | ** |  | CH | Unemployment |
| 06/05/2022 | 0600/0800 | ** |  | DE | Industrial Production |
| 06/05/2022 | 0600/0700 | * |  | UK | Halifax House Price Index |
| 06/05/2022 | 0700/0900 | ** |  | ES | Industrial Production |
| 06/05/2022 | 0730/0930 |  | SE | Riksbank Minutes April meet | |
| 06/05/2022 | 0800/1000 | * |  | IT | Retail Sales |
| 06/05/2022 | 0830/0930 | ** | | UK | IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 06/05/2022 | 1115/1215 | | UK | BOE Pill Monetary Policy Report National Agency briefing | |
| 06/05/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** |  | CA | Labour Force Survey |
| 06/05/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** |  | US | Employment Report |
| 06/05/2022 | 1315/0915 | | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 06/05/2022 | 1400/1000 | * | | CA | Ivey PMI |
| 06/05/2022 | 1500/1600 | | UK | BOE Tenreyro Lecture at Irish Economic Association | |
| 06/05/2022 | 1500/1100 | | US | Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari | |
| 06/05/2022 | 1900/1500 | * | | US | Consumer Credit |
| 06/05/2022 | 1920/1520 | | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
| 06/05/2022 | 2315/1915 | | US | St. Louis Fed's James Bullard | |
| 06/05/2022 | 2315/1915 | | US | Fed Governor Christopher Waller | |
| 06/05/2022 | 0000/2000 | | US | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.