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With Monday's data schedule light, the next few days will offer a better clue to the outlook. Here’s an overview of key interest points in the days ahead.
Key final eurozone inflation prints this week include Spain (Tuesday) and France (Friday).
Monday:
Japan Q4 GDP to Rebound (2350 GMT)
Japan's economy likely expanded for the first time in two quarters over October-December thanks to a rebound in both private consumption and capital investment, as well as easing supply-chain restrictions. Economists see preliminary Q4 GDP rebounding strongly to +1.4% q/q and +5.8% y/y, following the drop in Q3 to -0.9% q/q and -3.6% q/q.
Going forward, economists expect a Q1 slowdown a amid a surge in Omicron cases and associated restrictions.
Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index More Optimistic (1000 GMT)
The ZEW expectations and current situations survey will shed light on the medium-term outlook for the German economy. Expectations are seen jumping to 58.8 in February, up from 51.7 in January. The key driver of optimism surrounding upcoming economic growth is the assumption of significantly lower covid cases and expectations that inflation will be subsiding.
The current economic situation index highlights a stark contrast, seen remaining pessimistic at -4.3 in February, albeit improving on the January dip of -10.2. Current supply chain disruptions, inflation concerns and current sentiment regarding covid cases and restrictions in Germany are responsible for low readings.
Eurozone Flash GDP to Confirm Prelim Flash (1000 GMT)
The preliminary estimate for Q4 2021 GDP growth is expected to remain in line with the prelim flash. Growth is projected to come in at +0.3% q/q a significant stalling from Q3 2021, where the Eurozone aggregate saw growth rates of +2.3% q/q. The year-on-year prints are expected to expand to +4.6% y/y from +3.9% y/y in Q3, highlighting recovered growth compared to the 2020 slump which saw substantial lock-down contractions in the region.
US Factory Gate Inflation Seen Lower (1330 GMT)
Analysts are looking for US final demand PPI to grow again on the month to +0.5 m/m, up from +0.2 m/m in December. On the year, factory gate inflation is predicted to see some relief, stepping down to +8.9% y/y from the +9.7% y/y in December, which edged down from the +9.8% y/y November data-series record peak.
The possible reduction in PPI gains offers crucial indication of cooling US inflation. US CPI is currently running at a 40-year high of +7.5% y/y, following last week’s upside surprise. Markets are currently pricing a 50bp hike in March, however theories of possibilities of inter-meeting hikes, and immediate ends to QE are coming into focus.
Wednesday:
UK Inflation Surge to Continue (0700 GMT)
The consensus is projecting a further increase in headline UK inflation to +5.6% y/y in January edging further upwards from +5.4% y/y December; an almost 30-year high. On the month, inflation is seen contracting by -0.2% m/m, declining for a third consecutive month. Household goods, food and services were key upwards driver, alongside energy price inflation proving persistent.
The Bank of England hiked by 25bp to 0.5% at the February meeting, with a further 25bp hike now expected on March 17.
US IP to Recover (1445 GMT)
US IP is forecasted to recover in January, growing at +0.4% m/m, from the -0.1% m/m contraction of December., which saw a decline in manufacturing and utilities, almost offset my mining growth. Total industrial production remains 0.6% above pre-pandemic levels.
Today’s key policymaker appearance is the ECB President Lagarde at the EU Parliament and ECB Annual Report Plenum. Available links to the events are in the calendar below.
Today's Data Schedule:
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 14/02/2022 | 1600/1100 | ** |  | US | NY Fed survey of consumer expectations |
| 14/02/2022 | 1615/1715 |  | EU | ECB Lagarde Speech on anniversary of Euro at EU Parliament | |
| 14/02/2022 | 1630/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 14/02/2022 | 1630/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 14/02/2022 | 1630/1730 | | EU | ECB Lagarde Intro at ECB Annual Report 2020 Plenum | |
| 15/02/2022 | 2350/0850 | *** |  | JP | GDP (p) |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.