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The focus for Tuesday will be the UK labour market report ahead of Thursday’s BOE meet and signs of improvement in the German ZEW index. The FOMC enters day one of their meeting, announcing their decision Wednesday at 1900 BST.
Final Germany CPI (0700 BST)
German CPI is set to be confirmed at +0.9% m/m and +7.9% y/y, confirming the highest since 1974 and the notable upside surprise on HICP, which jumped 0.9pp to +8.7% y/y in the flash. Upside surprises to May inflation prints across the Eurozone underpinned the hawkish tone of the meeting last week, with rate lift-off and the end of APP confirmed for July, whilst hinting at a 50bp hike in September.
Sweden CPI (0700 BST)
Inflation in the Nordics continues to accelerate, as the May print due today is anticipated to rise 0.6pp to +7.0% y/y and0.2pp to +0.8% m/m for Sweden, completing the May round of CPI for the region. The Riksbank-watched CPIF reading is also set to hit +7.0% y/y ahead of the June 29 meeting, whereby this second meeting of the year is set to see a 50bp hike.
UK Labour Report (0700 BST)
Another strong monthly labour report is expected for the April/May period, with the unemployment rate set to edge down a further 0.1pp to 3.6%, whilst average weekly earnings (incl. bonus) is seen up 0.4pp at +7.4% 3m y/y. The tight labour market conditions and increased labour earnings will continue to underpin confidence in the BOE’s hiking cycle, ahead of the projected 25bp hike to 1.25% on Thursday. Look out for our in-depth preview will be published today.
Following April’s strong 121,000 increase in payrolled employees change, May will likely see a softer 70,000 increase as labour market conditions become more saturated, as foreshadowed by PMI survey data.
Germany ZEW Survey (1000 BST)
Somewhat less-pessimistic pessimism will again see an improvement in the German ZEW survey for June. Expectations are expected to improve by 2.5 points to -26.8, whilst perceptions regarding the current business climate should improve by 5.5 points to -31.0. Concerns surrounding supply bottlenecks worsened by lockdowns in China will again come to light, as manufacturing industries continue to struggle to stabilise following the Ukraine war disruptions.
US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (1100 BST)
A modest 0.2pp slip in small business optimism in the US is on the cards this afternoon from the 2-year low seen over the previous two months, with inflation woes remaining elevated.
US Producer Prices (1330 BST)
Following the upside surprise of +8.6% y/y in May headline inflation, a second consecutive 50bp hike is set to be delivered at the Tuesday-Wednesday meeting. With factory-gate inflation due to come in at +0.8% m/m and a mild 0.2pp deceleration to +10.8% y/y, inflationary pressures remain high.
Ahead of this week’s FOMC and BOE meetings, the key policymaker appearance on today’s schedule will be ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel speaking on the key topic of euro-area bond market fragmentation in the evening.
Source: MNI / Bloomberg
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 14/06/2022 | 0600/0700 | *** |  | UK | Labour Market Survey |
| 14/06/2022 | 0600/0800 | *** |  | DE | HICP (f) |
| 14/06/2022 | 0600/0800 | *** |  | SE | Inflation report |
| 14/06/2022 | 0600/0800 | * | | DE | Wholesale Prices |
| 14/06/2022 | 0900/1100 | *** | | DE | ZEW Current Expectations Index |
| 14/06/2022 | 0900/1100 | *** | | DE | ZEW Current Conditions Index |
| 14/06/2022 | 1000/0600 | ** |  | US | NFIB Small Business Optimism Index |
| 14/06/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | PPI |
| 14/06/2022 | 1255/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 14/06/2022 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | IBD/TIPP Optimism Index |
| 14/06/2022 | 1530/1130 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill |
| 14/06/2022 | 1700/1900 |  | EU | ECB Schnabel on Euro Bond Market Fragmentation |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.