MNI GLOBAL MORNING BRIEFING: Eyeing UK Public Sector Finances

Tuesday's data releases include UK PSF, Eurozone construction and UK industrial trends in the morning. In the afternoon focus will turn towards Canadian industrial and material prices, followed by the US Richmond Fed survey, which will highlight any recovery seen in the US manufacturing sector.

UK Public Sector Finances (0700 GMT)

Analysts are projecting UK public sector borrowing to fall to GBP 8.1bln in February, sharply below the GBP 15.997bln recorded a year earlier. On the one hand, the survey data sees an upside surprise around the 10b mark, however, borrowing could be much smaller than expected due to the extended penalty-free self-assessment returns.

The February public sector finance release is the last before Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak presents his Spring statement on Wednesday, and lower-than-forecast borrowing may free up some funding to tackle the growing cost of living crisis.

Eurozone Construction Output (1000 GMT)

Eurozone construction dipped by -3.9% y/y in January, the strongest decline since February 2021 largely on the back of a surge in covid cases. Today’s February print will shed light on whether the sector managed a swift rebound or remains strained.

UK CBI Industrial Trends (1100 GMT)

The CBI industrial trends report is projected to reveal a decline in total orders in March and an increase in selling prices. Total orders are seen falling four points to 16, and prices increasing by two points to 79. This report will be the first CBI survey to include possible price effects of the Ukraine war.

Canada Industrial Product & Raw Material Prices (1230 GMT)

Industrial production and raw material price growth are anticipated to have softened in February to +2.5% m/m (from 3.0%) and +5.5% m/m (from 6.5%).

The BOC hiked 25bp at the beginning of the month, kicking off the tightening cycle. With Canadian inflation running at +5.7% y/y in February, hints at PPI slowing would be welcome news.

Hungarian Central Bank Base Rate (1300 GMT)

The NBH is likely to accelerate the pace of its policy tightening with a 100bps hike on its ‘core’ policy rate at today’s meeting, which would levitate the benchmark rate to 4.4%. See the MNI NBH previewfor a comprehensive overview of today's meeting.

Richmond Fed Survey (1400 GMT)

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Activity Index is expected to show little improvement in March, projected to inch up one point to 2 after a Winter slump largely induced by declines in new orders and persistent challenges associated with shipment and logistics.

UK PSNB, source: ONS

Key policymaker appearances today are ECB-heavy, with Luis de Guindos, Fabio Panetta, Philip Lane and President Christine Lagarde all on the schedule. The BOE's Jon Cunliffe, San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly and Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester are also due to make appearances. Where available, links are in the calendar below.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
22/03/2022	0700/0700	***		UK	Public Sector Finances
22/03/2022	0720/0820			EU	ECB de Guindos in Panel at Money Review Banking Summit
22/03/2022	0900/1000	**		EU	EZ Current Acc
22/03/2022	1000/1100	**		EU	Construction Production
22/03/2022	1100/1100	**		UK	CBI Industrial Trends
22/03/2022	1230/0830	**		US	Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index
22/03/2022	1255/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
22/03/2022	1310/1410			EU	ECB Panetta Opening CCP Risk Management Conference
22/03/2022	1315/1415			EU	ECB Lagarde Speech at BIS Innovation Summit
22/03/2022	1400/1000	**		US	Richmond Fed Survey
22/03/2022	1515/1515			UK	BOE Cunliffe Panels BIS Innovation Summit
22/03/2022	1530/1130	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill
22/03/2022	1700/1800			EU	ECB Lane Panels Discussion on Flexible Exchange Rates
22/03/2022	1800/1400			US	San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly
22/03/2022	2100/1700			US	Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester