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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GLOBAL
MNI (Australia): The November CPB world trade data are showing a clear slowdown is now in place. Global trade volumes fell 2.5% m/m after -1.4% in October to be down 1.5% y/y, the first contraction in just over two years. With momentum also clearly negative, the slowdown has more to go.
- Global export volumes fell 3% m/m to be down 1.6% y/y. Exports from emerging economies have been weaker than for developed countries at -3.7% y/y compared with -0.4%, driven by weakness in China (-10.2% y/y), which should now rebound somewhat following the end of lockdowns.
- Global IP fell for the second consecutive month in November and is now up 1.5% y/y after 3.1% last month, but 3-month momentum has turned negative. Metals prices appear to have troughed indicating that the turndown in global output may be shallow, however the global manufacturing PMI is yet to stabilise.
- Global trade prices rose 1.2% m/m in November after falling 1.9% the previous month with 3-month momentum very negative at -15.2% annualised. Energy prices are down 21% 3m/3m average annualised (up 25.1% y/y), and non-energy raw material prices are down 29.3%, which is good news for the inflation outlook.
- The IMF publishes its updated forecasts today.
Global growth
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/CPB/Bloomberg
Exports y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/CPB
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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