January 31, 2023 00:21 GMT
Global Trade Flows Clearly Slowing
MNI (Australia): The November CPB world trade data are showing a clear slowdown is now in place. Global trade volumes fell 2.5% m/m after -1.4% in October to be down 1.5% y/y, the first contraction in just over two years. With momentum also clearly negative, the slowdown has more to go.
- Global export volumes fell 3% m/m to be down 1.6% y/y. Exports from emerging economies have been weaker than for developed countries at -3.7% y/y compared with -0.4%, driven by weakness in China (-10.2% y/y), which should now rebound somewhat following the end of lockdowns.
- Global IP fell for the second consecutive month in November and is now up 1.5% y/y after 3.1% last month, but 3-month momentum has turned negative. Metals prices appear to have troughed indicating that the turndown in global output may be shallow, however the global manufacturing PMI is yet to stabilise.
- Global trade prices rose 1.2% m/m in November after falling 1.9% the previous month with 3-month momentum very negative at -15.2% annualised. Energy prices are down 21% 3m/3m average annualised (up 25.1% y/y), and non-energy raw material prices are down 29.3%, which is good news for the inflation outlook.
- The IMF publishes its updated forecasts today.
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/CPB/Bloomberg
Source: MNI - Market News/CPB
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