© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI INTERVIEW: Canada Budget Keeps BOC On Pause: Ex Official

MNI BRIEF: Highlights of Canada Debt Strategy

CANADA BUDGETS CAD40.1B DEFICIT IN FISCAL 2023-24

SARB Watch

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: GR Synd Expected, PT Buyback Wed

SARB Data Watch

MNI BRIEF: FDIC To Conduct Review Of Deposit Insurance

MNI BRIEF: Fed's Barr: Will Use All Tools To Keep Banks Safe

(RPT)MNI INTERVIEW:Ex-FDIC Chair Downplays Bank Contagion Risk

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access
Trending Top 5
Market News Topics

Global Trade Flows Clearly Slowing

GLOBAL
EM BulletFixed Income NewsHomepageBulletMarketsEmerging Markets NewsForeign Exchange News

MNI (Australia): The November CPB world trade data are showing a clear slowdown is now in place. Global trade volumes fell 2.5% m/m after -1.4% in October to be down 1.5% y/y, the first contraction in just over two years. With momentum also clearly negative, the slowdown has more to go.

  • Global export volumes fell 3% m/m to be down 1.6% y/y. Exports from emerging economies have been weaker than for developed countries at -3.7% y/y compared with -0.4%, driven by weakness in China (-10.2% y/y), which should now rebound somewhat following the end of lockdowns.
  • Global IP fell for the second consecutive month in November and is now up 1.5% y/y after 3.1% last month, but 3-month momentum has turned negative. Metals prices appear to have troughed indicating that the turndown in global output may be shallow, however the global manufacturing PMI is yet to stabilise.
  • Global trade prices rose 1.2% m/m in November after falling 1.9% the previous month with 3-month momentum very negative at -15.2% annualised. Energy prices are down 21% 3m/3m average annualised (up 25.1% y/y), and non-energy raw material prices are down 29.3%, which is good news for the inflation outlook.
  • The IMF publishes its updated forecasts today.
Global growth

Keep reading...Show less
212 words

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to

MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

MNI (Australia): The November CPB world trade data are showing a clear slowdown is now in place. Global trade volumes fell 2.5% m/m after -1.4% in October to be down 1.5% y/y, the first contraction in just over two years. With momentum also clearly negative, the slowdown has more to go.

  • Global export volumes fell 3% m/m to be down 1.6% y/y. Exports from emerging economies have been weaker than for developed countries at -3.7% y/y compared with -0.4%, driven by weakness in China (-10.2% y/y), which should now rebound somewhat following the end of lockdowns.
  • Global IP fell for the second consecutive month in November and is now up 1.5% y/y after 3.1% last month, but 3-month momentum has turned negative. Metals prices appear to have troughed indicating that the turndown in global output may be shallow, however the global manufacturing PMI is yet to stabilise.
  • Global trade prices rose 1.2% m/m in November after falling 1.9% the previous month with 3-month momentum very negative at -15.2% annualised. Energy prices are down 21% 3m/3m average annualised (up 25.1% y/y), and non-energy raw material prices are down 29.3%, which is good news for the inflation outlook.
  • The IMF publishes its updated forecasts today.
Global growth

Keep reading...Show less