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Goldman Raises Hiking Forecast By 25bp

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Goldman Sachs analysts have raised their Fed hike forecast: they have added a 25bp hike to the path in May to their existing expectations of 50bp in Dec, 25bp in Feb, 25bp in March, putting their new terminal rate projection at 5.00-5.25%.

  • They cite pressure on the Fed amid inflation remaining uncomfortably high "for a while", alongside potential concerns that a deceleration in the pace of tightening could cause premature easing in financial conditions that the Fed will want to push against.
  • Also the Fed will likely have to hike more to keep economic growth below potential, as household real disposable income remains strong.
  • They expect the December Dot Plot to project a peak of either 4.75-5.00% or 5.00-5.25%.
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Goldman Sachs analysts have raised their Fed hike forecast: they have added a 25bp hike to the path in May to their existing expectations of 50bp in Dec, 25bp in Feb, 25bp in March, putting their new terminal rate projection at 5.00-5.25%.

  • They cite pressure on the Fed amid inflation remaining uncomfortably high "for a while", alongside potential concerns that a deceleration in the pace of tightening could cause premature easing in financial conditions that the Fed will want to push against.
  • Also the Fed will likely have to hike more to keep economic growth below potential, as household real disposable income remains strong.
  • They expect the December Dot Plot to project a peak of either 4.75-5.00% or 5.00-5.25%.