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Goldman Sachs Believe Data To Determine BCCh Easing Pace

CHILE
  • Despite not wanting to surprise markets, in practice, the BCCh Board has changed their guidance frequently throughout this cycle and been very sensitive to some macro data prints and changes in external conditions, according to Goldman Sachs. While it is clear that the MPC wants to continue with an aggressive easing cycle towards a neutral monetary policy stance, GS believe the pace of cuts going forward will depend on incoming data and global financial conditions.
  • According to Goldman Sachs, they believe the BCCh minutes strengthen the unequivocally dovish tone conveyed in the post-meeting statement. The MPC assessed that the downward inflationary surprise in December—both in headline and core— was “important” and in its opinion the lower-than-expected CPI prints in recent months “raise questions about the level of the output gap.”
  • The MPC hinted that the FX pass-through from recent depreciation of the peso could be weaker, in their assessment, given lower external prices, soft domestic demand, weakness in China, and the prospect that companies could accommodate higher import prices.

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