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OIL: Goldman Sachs Cuts Oil Price Forecast By $5/bbl

OIL
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Goldman Sachs has cut its oil price forecast by $5/bbl to $65-80/bbl.

  • Oil markets remain focused on the price downside, the bank said in a note released on Tuesday.
  • The bank notes that Trump/Putin talks yesterday potentially incrementally reduced the probability of near-term tightening in Russia sanctions, with the US saying talks for a full ceasefire would start immediately.
  • On the positive side for prices, tensions in the Middle East have risen amidst US attacks on Houthi militants and Israeli airstrikes on Gaza, while the Trans Niger pipeline in Nigeria was reportedly shut following an explosion.
  • Some local media reports today suggest the pipeline has resumed operation. 
  • Tariff escalation and high spare capacity skews medium-term risks to the price forecast to the downside, according to Goldman.
  • However, Goldman expects oil prices to edge up in the coming months, and thinks that market pricing of volatility and of the upside risk from potentially lower sanctioned supply remains too low. 
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Goldman Sachs has cut its oil price forecast by $5/bbl to $65-80/bbl.

  • Oil markets remain focused on the price downside, the bank said in a note released on Tuesday.
  • The bank notes that Trump/Putin talks yesterday potentially incrementally reduced the probability of near-term tightening in Russia sanctions, with the US saying talks for a full ceasefire would start immediately.
  • On the positive side for prices, tensions in the Middle East have risen amidst US attacks on Houthi militants and Israeli airstrikes on Gaza, while the Trans Niger pipeline in Nigeria was reportedly shut following an explosion.
  • Some local media reports today suggest the pipeline has resumed operation. 
  • Tariff escalation and high spare capacity skews medium-term risks to the price forecast to the downside, according to Goldman.
  • However, Goldman expects oil prices to edge up in the coming months, and thinks that market pricing of volatility and of the upside risk from potentially lower sanctioned supply remains too low.