MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY37.3 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1843 Weds; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: Japan Nov CGPI Rises 3.7% Y/Y, Import Prices Drop

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Not Even Close To Fiscal Dominance - David

CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI: JAPAN NOV CORP GOODS PRICE INDEX +3.7% Y/Y; OCT REV +3.6%

MNI: USDA: 2024/2025 CORN PRODUCTION EST 15.14B BSL

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 12-Month BOT Auction on Wednesday

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Post-CPI NBH Views

HUNGARY
  • Goldman Sachs say the weak inflation print could be partly explained by administrative measures that are pushing retailers to actively lower prices. Nevertheless, the print, combined with ongoing strong performance of the HUF, bodes well for the NBH to continue with its 100bp cuts to the 1-day deposit rate at the next MPC meeting.
  • While Goldman Sachs maintain their view that Hungary will face challenges in achieving its inflation objective in a sustainable manner while wage growth continues to track at an elevated pace, in the near-term, they think that the balance of risks is skewed towards a faster-than-expected disinflation in headline inflation.
  • JP Morgan say the continuation of disinflation dynamics should encourage the NBH to proceed with its 100bp/month easing cycle until September. After that they see a pause, as core inflation will still be too elevated, with the NBH starting base rate cuts in early 2024 only.
  • However, they say there are risks disinflation comes faster than their forecast which would allow the NBH to cut the base rate already in 4Q23. Another option would be for the central bank to step up the pace of rate cuts in the next few months given the better-than-expected inflation data.
  • However, JPM think the bar for accelerating the 100bp/month cut pace is rather high, and would require even stronger downside surprises to CPI, ideally including lower moves in core services too.
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.