MNI BRIEF: China CPI Expected To Rise Moderately - NBS

MNI BRIEF: China Aug Output, Investment Hit Lowest Of The Year

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY138.7 Bln via OMO Saturday

CHINA AUG INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT +4.5% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +4.6% Y/Y: NBS

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY138.7 BLN VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS SAT

MNI BRIEF: Turkish Central Bank Sees Further Disinflation

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Slovakia Auction, BoE APF on Monday

MNI BRIEF: China Aug M1 Drops Further To Hit Record Low

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

UK: Week Ahead

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Goldman Sachs on Banxico Quarterly Inflation Report

MEXICO
  • The 2Q22-QIR will contain updated forecasts for growth (likely to be downgraded) and headline/core inflation over the relevant horizon for monetary policy (expected to have deteriorated visibly versus the forecast path in the 1Q22-QIR with convergence to the 3.0% target now delayed to 1Q2024, versus 2H2023 previously).
  • Furthermore, in the 1Q22-QIR the central bank may update the overall growth-inflation balance of risks and possibly the forward guidance vis-à-vis the most recent set of MPC Minutes given that for the QIR, the central bank has a larger set of data than it did when the MPC last met on Feb 10, namely: 1H May inflation report and the revised (2nd vintage) real GDP figures for 4Q2021 (marginally higher than the 1st vintage flash expected).
  • Against a backdrop of higher inflation, higher rates, and tighter domestic financial conditions, the central bank is likely to downgrade the outlook for real GDP growth in 2023 and at least the upper-limit of the 2022 range.
  • In order to calibrate the monetary policy path, GS will pay particular attention to the characterization of the balance of risks to inflation (which they expect to remain biased to the upside) and the list and ranking order of both upside and downside risks to inflation.
  • The latest minutes showed a relatively hawkish balance of views within the MPC. Hence, in their assessment, the bar to accelerate the pace of tightening from 50bp to 75bp is relatively low.
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.