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Goldman Sachs On China New Loans Data

CHINA DATA

The US Bank updates views post Friday's new loans/aggregate finance data for Jan. It still expects further monetary policy easing in the months ahead to support growth.

  • Goldman Sachs: January's new RMB loans and TSF data came in above (low) expectations while M2 growth disappointed. The shifting Chinese New Year holiday added noise to this set of data. The solid corporate medium to long term loan growth should bode well for investment, and the fast increase of household short-term loan may reflect holiday distortion and may not be sustainable. The 8.1% month-over-month annualized TSF growth was still relatively soft (the slowest month-over-month annualized growth since July 2023, after our seasonal adjustment). The PBOC has been placing more emphasis on the structure of credit flows besides the aggregate amount, and warns against over-interpretation of single-month credit data. TSF flows may decline materially in February on seasonality, and more monetary policy easing is still needed in the next few months to facilitate economic growth in our view.
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