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OIL: Goldman Sachs Raises Brent Forecast But Stiil In $70-$85/bbl Range

OIL
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Goldman Sachs has increased its Brent crude forecast by $2/bbl as a boost from lower OECD commercial inventories outweighs a lower long term price forecast.

  • Brent has been raised to $78/bbl for 2025 and $73/bbl for 2026 with an $80/bbl peak in April-May 2025.
  • Short term risk is skewed to the upside but to the downside in the medium term.
  • The forecast for OECD commercial stocks in 2025-2026 has been lowered amid smaller than expected supplies from non-OPEC countries excluding the US.
  • Brent could temporarily rise to $93/bbl if sanctioned supply falls by 1mb/d but could fall to the low-$60s/bbl in 2026 in a 10% universal tariff scenario.
  • A 25% tariff on Canadian oil would initially raise gasoline prices in the US Midwest but would eventually weigh on crude prices globally due to weaker demand.
  • US policy uncertainty is high, but a range of $70-$85/bbl is supported by OPEC+ compliance, the US aim for energy dominance and affordable prices and dynamic US SPR management.
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Goldman Sachs has increased its Brent crude forecast by $2/bbl as a boost from lower OECD commercial inventories outweighs a lower long term price forecast.

  • Brent has been raised to $78/bbl for 2025 and $73/bbl for 2026 with an $80/bbl peak in April-May 2025.
  • Short term risk is skewed to the upside but to the downside in the medium term.
  • The forecast for OECD commercial stocks in 2025-2026 has been lowered amid smaller than expected supplies from non-OPEC countries excluding the US.
  • Brent could temporarily rise to $93/bbl if sanctioned supply falls by 1mb/d but could fall to the low-$60s/bbl in 2026 in a 10% universal tariff scenario.
  • A 25% tariff on Canadian oil would initially raise gasoline prices in the US Midwest but would eventually weigh on crude prices globally due to weaker demand.
  • US policy uncertainty is high, but a range of $70-$85/bbl is supported by OPEC+ compliance, the US aim for energy dominance and affordable prices and dynamic US SPR management.