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EURO-SEK: Goldman Sachs recommend getting short EUR/SEK with a target of
SEK9.60, and a stop at SEK10.60.
- Goldman Sachs writes that "the economy in Sweden is operating well beyond
potential, inflation is on target, and yet policy remains accommodative. To be
fair, this has been the case for some time now, but we think "this time is
different" as the Riksbank's communication about normalization has become
decidedly more concrete in recent months. Our analysis suggests policymakers in
Sweden will ultimately need to tighten policy sooner and more aggressively than
their counterparts at the ECB, and we expect this will include some SEK
appreciation. While domestic policy should provide some protection, the main
risk to this trade is a more marked deterioration in Euro area sentiment, which
tends to weigh on SEK. This supplants our previous trade recommendation to go
long an equally-weighted basket of SEK and NOK, which we close for a potential
profit of 1.05%."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |

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