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Goldman Sachs Revise Year-End Inflation Forecast Higher to 33% Y/Y

TURKEY
  • Goldman Sachs say February's high inflation print mechanically raises their 2024 year-end forecast from 30% y/y to 33% y/y. But notwithstanding it, they maintain their constructive views on Turkish inflation.
  • They note that there is a wider range of uncertainty around inflation in H1 reflecting the pass-through from minimum wage and the adjustment to utility prices in May. For this reason, their forecasts are close to consensus for H1 but substantially lower from Q3 onward when they see inflation falling sharply, driven by the contraction in money growth.
  • Goldman Sachs say February’s print raises the risk that the CBRT will raise rates further. But they add that they think the Bank will first want to see whether the capital flows will normalise post the election and better BOP seasonality from March onwards before considering tightening policy further.
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