MNI BRIEF: Fed's Barr Aims For Broad Consensus On Capital Plan

FED'S BARR: WE THINK FAIRLY SOON WE CAN ADJUST PACE OF QT

FED BARR: EXPECT BROAD, MATERIAL CHANGES TO BASEL III PROPOSAL

MNI EM China Daily Summary: Friday, March 22

MNI China Press Digest Mar 22: Autos, Local Gov, Real-Estate

MNI: PBOC Drains Net CNY11 Bln Via OMO Fri; Rates Unchanged

Bond Supply Calendar: Long BoE APF Sales on Monday

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 624; OIL RIGS 509; GAS RIGS 112

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany, France Auction Monday

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

MNI BRIEF: Lawmakers Signal Tough Hearing For BOC's Macklem

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Goldman Sachs See 100bp CBRT Cuts at Remaining 2022 Meetings

TURKEY
  • In line with the unanimous consensus, Goldman Sachs expect the committee to cut its policy rate by 100bp to +11.00%. In both of its last two MPC meetings, the TCMB delivered a 100bp cut, bringing down its policy rate from +14.00% to +12.00%, and cited the importance of supportive financial conditions to preserve growth momentum amid slower activity in Q3.
  • President Erdogan has stated that he sees rates falling to single digits by next year. Based on Goldman’s view that the TCMB repo rate is largely disconnected from the monetary policy stance, they think the Bank is likely to continue cutting rates to further signal that policy will not be tightened. Hence, they forecast 100bp of cuts every meeting until year-end.
  • Despite the rate cuts, funding and macro prudential policies have remained restrictive so far. Nevertheless, Goldman think this is likely to be reversed closer to next year’s election and possibly via additional government spending, given the relative availability of fiscal space in Turkey. The primary question remains on the timing and extent of further changes to policy.
BulletEM BulletEmerging Markets NewsHomepage
BulletEM BulletEmerging Markets NewsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.