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Goldman Tracking Estimate Of German, Euro HICP Dips After Data

EUROZONE DATA

Taking into consideration Spanish and German state inflation this morning, Goldman Sachs eyes a 6.4% national German HICP print for August's flash estimates, which would be 0.1pp below their previous expectations but 0.1pp higher than consensus coming into the day.

  • For eurozone HICP they now track 5.31% Y/Y (was 5.35% before today), with core also at 5.31% (was 5.34%), translating into M/M SA pace of 0.33% (an 11bp deceleration from GS's estimate of July core inflation, and 4bp below the ECB's estimate).
  • This would put core HICP in line with consensus estimates on Y/Y (5.30%) but perhaps a touch softer on M/M (0.4% consensus), with headline HICP coming in above the 5.1% expected in BBG consensus coming into the day.
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