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Good Data, Positive For Rates?

US TSYS SUMMARY
Tsy trading mostly higher, 10Y back to steady after the bell. Tsys sold off post minutes, back near post 20Y AND pre-early session data levels. After trading lower on better than expected data (aside from revisions, and taking yesterday's move into account) it appears sentiment is back to "good data is bad" as it lowers probability of $1.X trillion fiscal stimulus on the margins.
  • Quick takeaways, Fed remains accommodative as some see near term downside risks eco-outlook and conditions, Covid-19 metrics remain "important". Upside risks, fiscal policy could be more robust, financial market utilities could display greater propensity toward higher spending.
  • Treasuries gap lower after WEAK US Tsy $27B 20Y bond auction (912810SW9) draws 1.920% vs. 1.897% WI, bid/cover 2.15% (2.28% previous).
  • Choppy day for Tsy yld curves, mildly flatter after bear steepening Tue. Heavy session volumes in 2s-10s March/June rolls ahead Feb 26 first notice: TUH/TUM w/82k, FVH/FVM w/99k, TYH/TYM w/67k.
  • TYH1 hit resistance: 135-30.5H (+5.5) just below initial resistance of 136-01, Jan 12 low -- trend remains down.
  • The 2-Yr yield is down 1.2bps at 0.1069%, 5-Yr is down 1.4bps at 0.5593%, 10-Yr is down 2.2bps at 1.2922%, and 30-Yr is down 3.1bps at 2.0608%.

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