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Greenback Firms, CAD Bolstered By Large Jobs Beat

FOREX
  • The USD index has firmed roughly 0.4% on Friday and is edging back towards the February highs around the 1.0400 mark. This caps off a stronger week for the greenback as markets have adjusted Fed terminal rate pricing and provides an interesting backdrop ahead of key inflation data in the US next week.
  • The Canadian dollar received a substantial boost from January employment figures and is the best performing currency across G10. At the bottom of the board sits the Swedish Krona, retracing some of the Riksbank inspired strength on Thursday, closely followed by weakness in EUR, GBP and the Chinese Yuan.
  • EURUSD (-0.66%) has drifted lower into the Friday close amid the more pessimistic tone across equity markets this week, and is testing/has breached support at 1.0674, the 50-day EMA. This represents a key short-term level with the recent move down being considered corrective up to this point.
  • Given USDJPY’s sensitivity to movement in core yields and the key US inflation data due next Tuesday, the pair will naturally be in focus for currency traders next week.
  • Price action today and throughout the week has been centred around BOJ headlines which, while providing volatility, has not garnered any meaningful adjustment with the pair residing just 0.2% higher on the week.
  • Resistance at the 50-day exponential moving average remains intact, currently intersecting at 132.77. This average represents a key short-term level and a clear break is required to suggest scope for an extension higher that would expose 134.77, the Jan 6 high.
  • Not expecting much to come from Eurogroup meetings on Monday. First data will be Eurozone flash readings for unemployment and GDP on Tuesday followed by the key risk event of the week, US January CPI.
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