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GS: Bring forward hikes: 25bp hike at every meeting to Aug; 1.75% by Nov

BOE
  • Goldman Sachs updated its BOE view just before yesterday's close: "We bring forward a couple of our projected hikes, and we now expect the BoE to raise Bank Rate in back-to-back meetings through August, taking Bank Rate to 1.5%."
  • "While we think the BoE will hit the stated 1% threshold in May, we do not expect active asset sales to begin until the summer." This view on active sales is unchanged.
  • "After the August meeting, we expect BoE to slow the hiking cycle, with Bank Rate reaching 1.75% in November and 2% in 2023Q2."
  • Goldman Sach's previous view was to expect further hikes in Mar22, May22, Nov22 (reaching 1.25%), May23, Nov23, May24 (to 2.00%).
  • "Given likely large impacts on lower income households from the cost-of-living squeeze, we shave our growth forecast modestly for 2022 (-0.1pp to 4.7%) and further out for 2023 (-0.2pp to 2.2%) and 2024 (-0.15pp to 1.5%)."
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