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Hapag-Llyod (HPLGR unsecured; Ba3 Pos/BB+) Upgrades FY guidance, 1H prelim results

TRANSPORTATION
  • 1H (to June) prelim results (here) are for EBITDA of €1.8b and EBIT of €0.8b. FY24 (to Dec) EBITDA guidance bumped from 2-3b to 3.2-4.2b (consensus 3b at 19% margin). EBIT also raised from 0-1b to 1.2-2.2b vs. c1b.
  • It's 1H numbers and FY guidance will still be down yoy but container rates remaining elevated on continuing disruptions (Maersk ship was attacked yesterday) is helping the sector upgrade FY expectations.
  • BS fine (gross €5b debt including leases, net -0.8b at the end of last year). €300m 28s trading at Z+102/4% to maturity seem to be pricing in some chance of a ~5pts upside to early calls but it is well through its 3x net leverage ceiling and sitting on a 2.5% coupon.
  • As higher rated CMA CGM showed last month, it might struggle to get anything in the vicinity on refi (CMA 5NC2 priced at 5.5%) even if it's coming off record years.
  • Final 1H figures come 14th of August
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