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Unrounded Unemployment Rate - Jul'24

AHE Unrounded - Jul'24:

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Headline Employment Report Data Much Weaker Than Expected

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The July employment report was much weaker than had been expected in almost every respect, and with only a few mitigating factors based on a closer look at the underlying numbers.

  • The 114k of payroll gains was 61k below the median expectation, and was effectively a 90k "miss" with the 2-month downward revisions to May (-27k) and April (-2k).
  • Private payrolls missed badly, at +97k (141k consensus), though enjoyed a 13k upward revision (accounted for entirely by April).
  • The rise in the unemployment rate from 4.1% 4.3% was due in part to a rounding effect (unrounded was 4.25%), but this still represented a 0.2pp increase in the rate (4.05% unrounded prior, unrevised).
  • While headline payrolls and unemployment were worse than foreseen by any primary dealer in MNI's preview, earnings also came in at the low end of expectations at an unrounded 0.229% M/M (down from a downwardly revised 0.287%).
  • A downside surprise to job gains had been flagged as a major risk on account of Hurricane Beryl, but the BLS specifically noted that it "had no discernible effect on the national employment and unemployment data for July, and the response rates for the two surveys were within normal ranges".


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The July employment report was much weaker than had been expected in almost every respect, and with only a few mitigating factors based on a closer look at the underlying numbers.

  • The 114k of payroll gains was 61k below the median expectation, and was effectively a 90k "miss" with the 2-month downward revisions to May (-27k) and April (-2k).
  • Private payrolls missed badly, at +97k (141k consensus), though enjoyed a 13k upward revision (accounted for entirely by April).
  • The rise in the unemployment rate from 4.1% 4.3% was due in part to a rounding effect (unrounded was 4.25%), but this still represented a 0.2pp increase in the rate (4.05% unrounded prior, unrevised).
  • While headline payrolls and unemployment were worse than foreseen by any primary dealer in MNI's preview, earnings also came in at the low end of expectations at an unrounded 0.229% M/M (down from a downwardly revised 0.287%).
  • A downside surprise to job gains had been flagged as a major risk on account of Hurricane Beryl, but the BLS specifically noted that it "had no discernible effect on the national employment and unemployment data for July, and the response rates for the two surveys were within normal ranges".