Henry Hub Surges During Day

Henry Hub has surged to levels not seen since late August, although has retreated from its peak of $2.776/MMBtu earlier in the day. US natural gas is supported by slightly colder weather and more bullish EIA forecasts for consumption.

• US Natgas OCT 23 up 5.4% at 2.75$/mmbtu
• U.S. natural gas consumption is forecast to average 80.5 bcf/d in September, up 5% on the year and a record for the month of September, according to the EIA’s monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook.
• Higher air conditioning use during heat waves was cited by the EIA as the cause of the September natural gas demand boost
• Feedgas delivery flows to US LNG export terminals are today estimated to edge higher to 11.95bcf/d but Freeport LNG flows are still down at 0.7bcf/d compared to over 1.9bcf/d last week.
• The latest two week NOAA forecast is showing mostly above normal temperatures across the country in the 6-14 day period. The below normal temperatures forecast yesterday in central and eastern areas have turned to near normal. Lower 48 dry gas consumption is almost unchanged from yesterday at 70.9bcf/d and still above the previous five year average.
• US domestic natural gas production was yesterday slightly higher up to 101.7bcf/d according to Bloomberg although still below an average of around 102.4bcf/d in early August.
• Export flows to Mexico are today estimated at 6.95bcf/d.
• The US was the top exporter of LNG globally in the first half of 2023 averaging 11.6 bcf/d, according to the EIA.