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- Turkey leads the way this week in terms for FX appreciation vs the greenback (+3.1%), followed by MXN (+2.3%) & RUB (+1.7%) as US CPI failed to inspire hawkish bets on Fed tightening and US Treasury Yields pulled lower
- TRY caught a bid into the weekend as markets bolstered expectations for Erdogan to roll over on its commitment to keeping Russian S-400 missile systems that have been causing frictions in relations and keeping CAATSA sanctions risks elevated
- While both sides have showed interest in making a deal on the S-400s, concrete signs of a deal are limited outside of broad talk from Defense Min Akar and reports of moving the missiles to NATO's Incirlik air base – which would severely aggravate Russia.
- Turkey has demanded that the US allow it back into the F-35/patriot programme, or else it will continue to buy S-400s – something the US has never intimated at allowing.
- While Erdogan is in a position of weakness going into the meeting with support dwindling, market optimism may be slightly premature with risks to a sharp unwind, should a deal not materialize.