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Holding A Twist Steepening Ahead Of Early Cash Close Pre-Christmas

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have rallied over the past hour, pulling back off earlier lows in the case of 5-30Y benchmarks, ahead of the early close at 1400ET before the Christmas holiday-shortened week.
  • It leaves a twist steepening on the day with 2s 2bp richer and 30s 2bp cheaper, pivoting after 3s. 2s10s sits at -42.5bps (+3bps).
  • Steepening pressure has been helped by soft inflationary pressures from core PCE (6-month rate of 1.9% annualized with five of the past six months at or below the M/M pace consistent with 2%) along with beats for durable goods orders (albeit with overall orders driven by volatile, very strong aircraft orders).
  • TYH4 at 112-21 is between lows of 112-16 and the pre-data high of 112-31. Initial resistance is seen at yesterday’s high of 113-04+ after which lies 113-12+ (Fibo projection of Oct-Nov price swing).
  • There’s no early close for Tsy futures but volumes are unsurprisingly anemic, with TY only around 810k.
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