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GILTS: Holding Lower

GILTS
CEEMEABulletUKMarketsFixed Income Bullets

Gilts remain lower on the day.

  • Pressure was seen ahead of the GBP4.25bln auction of the 4.375% Mar-30 gilt, adding to weakness that stemmed from Canada & Mexico’s short-term U.S. tariff reprieve.
  • Mixed auction results failed to provide any lasting support.
  • Gilt futures as low as 92.45 post-auction before a recovery to 92.55.
  • Initial support located at the 20-day EMA (92.11).
  • Yields 3.5-6.0bp higher across the curve, 5s lead the sell off
  • 10-Year spread to Bunds ~2.5bp wider at 212.3bp, next upside level at the Jan 20 close (213.3bp).
  • Hawkish adjustments in GBP STIRs as gilts soften.
  • 23.5bp of cuts priced for this week’s BoE decision (our preview will be published later today), 47bp of cuts showing through May.
  • We look for 25bp cuts at both of those meetings.
  • 78bp of cuts priced through December vs. ~80bp late yesterday.
  • We believe that more data is needed before we can give a meaningful view on monetary policy beyond the Bank’s May meeting.
  • SONIA futures little changed to -7.5.
  • December highs in SFIZ5 remain untested.
  • The recent run of dovish repricing may have reached its limit, unless we get a fresh catalyst.
  • A limited UK calendar will leave focus on cross-asset cues and tariff-related headlines.
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Gilts remain lower on the day.

  • Pressure was seen ahead of the GBP4.25bln auction of the 4.375% Mar-30 gilt, adding to weakness that stemmed from Canada & Mexico’s short-term U.S. tariff reprieve.
  • Mixed auction results failed to provide any lasting support.
  • Gilt futures as low as 92.45 post-auction before a recovery to 92.55.
  • Initial support located at the 20-day EMA (92.11).
  • Yields 3.5-6.0bp higher across the curve, 5s lead the sell off
  • 10-Year spread to Bunds ~2.5bp wider at 212.3bp, next upside level at the Jan 20 close (213.3bp).
  • Hawkish adjustments in GBP STIRs as gilts soften.
  • 23.5bp of cuts priced for this week’s BoE decision (our preview will be published later today), 47bp of cuts showing through May.
  • We look for 25bp cuts at both of those meetings.
  • 78bp of cuts priced through December vs. ~80bp late yesterday.
  • We believe that more data is needed before we can give a meaningful view on monetary policy beyond the Bank’s May meeting.
  • SONIA futures little changed to -7.5.
  • December highs in SFIZ5 remain untested.
  • The recent run of dovish repricing may have reached its limit, unless we get a fresh catalyst.
  • A limited UK calendar will leave focus on cross-asset cues and tariff-related headlines.