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Free AccessHow have expectations changed? (1/2)
- In our BOE preview (released on Tuesday) we noted that we placed around a subjective 60% probability of Greene voting continuing to vote for a 25bp hike (rather than switching to on hold), 75% probability for Haskel and 90% for Mann. From the 20 preview that we read, only four (20%) expected any change to the vote breakdown at this meeting while 16 (80%) continued to expect 3 hawkish dissenters as in November.
- Since then we have received softer-than-expected activity data for October (monthly GDP falling -0.3%M/M versus expected -0.1%M/M) and many of the previews that we read released their vote breakdown expectations ahead of Tuesday's weak wage data.
- We think that the market pricing is more consistent with pricing a 7-2 vote (and given where we are a 6-3 vote could be a bit more market moving than 7-2).
- The SONIA market had already repriced, even before the Fed, and then this morning as we have just noted, the market briefly priced in excess of 125bp of hikes in 2024.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.