MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY349.2 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1124 Fri; +2.56% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY30.1 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS FRI

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1124 FRI VS 7.1299

MNI BRIEF: Inflation's Down, Not There Yet - Fed's Barkin

MNI BRIEF: Jobless Claims Stays Low, 2Q GDP Revised Higher

Australia Jun Retail Sales +0.5% M/M

Japan Jul Retail Sales +2.6% Y/Y

Japan Jul Ind. Output +2.8% M/M; First Fall In 2 Mths

UK: Week Ahead

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How have expectations changed? (1/2)

BOE
  • In our BOE preview (released on Tuesday) we noted that we placed around a subjective 60% probability of Greene voting continuing to vote for a 25bp hike (rather than switching to on hold), 75% probability for Haskel and 90% for Mann. From the 20 preview that we read, only four (20%) expected any change to the vote breakdown at this meeting while 16 (80%) continued to expect 3 hawkish dissenters as in November.
  • Since then we have received softer-than-expected activity data for October (monthly GDP falling -0.3%M/M versus expected -0.1%M/M) and many of the previews that we read released their vote breakdown expectations ahead of Tuesday's weak wage data.
  • We think that the market pricing is more consistent with pricing a 7-2 vote (and given where we are a 6-3 vote could be a bit more market moving than 7-2).
  • The SONIA market had already repriced, even before the Fed, and then this morning as we have just noted, the market briefly priced in excess of 125bp of hikes in 2024.
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