MNI BRIEF: Japan Q2 GDP To Be Slightly Revised Up

MNI BRIEF: German Firms Expanding R&D In China

CHINA AUGUST CAIXIN MANUFACTURING PMI 50.4 VS 49.8 IN JULY

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1027 Mon; +2.85% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY3.5 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS MON

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY467.5 Bln via OMO Monday

MNI: UK BRC AUG BY VALUE SHOP SALES LFL +0.8% YY, TOTAL +1% YY

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: UK Syndication; AS, DE Due Tuesday

MNI: UK AUG FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI 52.5 (FLASH: 52.5); JUL: 52.1

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

UK: Week Ahead

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

How have expectations changed? (2/2)

BOE
  • The MPC voted yesterday and signed off on the decision before seeing today's market reaction. So we still don't see as a base case a change in the forward guidance to more explicitly try and talk down market expectations of cuts here - but the probability has also risen. If the language was to be tightened today the market could be caught a bit more offside and see a potentially large reversal.
  • If we don't get that and guidance is unchanged, we don't think the market will see it as a hugely dovish development. How far could we go in terms of pricing 2024 cuts? It would be hard to really see the market extend to more than 135-140bp for 2024 as a whole (given that it's hard to really price too much of a chance ahead of the May meeting and May-Dec would only leave six meetings (i.e. 150bp if there were cuts at all 6). We don't think we will get there today - but a dovish MPC today and soft UK CPI next week could see the market move to those extreme levels.
  • Decision, statement and Minutes are out at 12:00GMT with no press conference for a non-MPR meeting.
Homepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.