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HSBC See Continuation of 25BP Easing Pace in 2024

PERU
  • HSBC expect the central bank to keep lowering rates and see a continuation of the 25bp cuts per month pace that began in September. They forecast a total of 300bp cuts in 2024, following 100bp in 2023. The main risk is a shortfall in GDP leading to faster cuts.
  • HSBC expect range-bound trading for PEN. Despite a fairly tepid growth outlook and lingering political risks in Peru, the bank expects PEN to remain fairly range-bound for much of 2024, at around 3.70/USD. The currency is supported by a strong balance of payments outlook thanks to growing copper production and sticky (albeit declining) FDI inflows.

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