MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, November 15

MNI BRIEF:China Optimistic On Property Despite Investment Fall

MNI BRIEF: China Oct Retail Sales Surge On Holiday, Trade-ins

CORRECTED-MNI INTERVIEW: NBH To Hold Rates

CHINA OCT INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT +5.3% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +5.5% Y/Y: NBS

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY968.8 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI: FRANCE OCT HICP +0.3% M/M, +1.6% Y/Y

MNI: UK Q3 GDP +0.1% Q/Q, +1% Y/Y

MNI: UK SEP TRADE BALANCE GBP -3.46BN

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

MNI EXCLUSIVE: German Turmoil Dashes EU's Joint-Funding Hopes -Officials

FED: Powell's Time Looks Up, Replacement Could Be Less Willing To Cut Rates?

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HUF: Forint Lagging Regional Peers Despite Slightly Softer Greenback

HUF
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EURHUF has bounced off this morning's lows, trading 0.2% higher at typing, despite no obvious headline driver behind the latest move higher. Global currency markets are trading on a more stable footing more broadly, with moves stemming from Powell's relatively hawkish appearance yesterday at which he noted the US economy's persistent strength - lessening the expectations of further rate cuts through 2025.

  • For EURHUF, a close near current levels would see the cross end the week close to unchanged. Notably, initial support at 406.13, the 20-day EMA, is within close proximity. While this average has been pierced, a clear break could signal scope for a deeper retracement, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 402.05. Key resistance is marked at 412.35, the Nov 6 high.
  • Attention turns to the NBH rate decision next Tuesday, where policymakers are expected to keep the base rate unchanged at 6.50% (see our latest Policy exclusive with a former NBH Deputy Governor). Focus here will be on the communication given the scale of the HUF selloff since the start of October, with central bank messaging likely to shift in the hawkish direction.
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EURHUF has bounced off this morning's lows, trading 0.2% higher at typing, despite no obvious headline driver behind the latest move higher. Global currency markets are trading on a more stable footing more broadly, with moves stemming from Powell's relatively hawkish appearance yesterday at which he noted the US economy's persistent strength - lessening the expectations of further rate cuts through 2025.

  • For EURHUF, a close near current levels would see the cross end the week close to unchanged. Notably, initial support at 406.13, the 20-day EMA, is within close proximity. While this average has been pierced, a clear break could signal scope for a deeper retracement, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 402.05. Key resistance is marked at 412.35, the Nov 6 high.
  • Attention turns to the NBH rate decision next Tuesday, where policymakers are expected to keep the base rate unchanged at 6.50% (see our latest Policy exclusive with a former NBH Deputy Governor). Focus here will be on the communication given the scale of the HUF selloff since the start of October, with central bank messaging likely to shift in the hawkish direction.