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HUNGARY: Hungary Falls Into Technical Recession Following Weak Q3 GDP Release

HUNGARY
CEEMEAEM BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsHungaryRegion
  • Hungary’s Q3 GDP data came in well below expectations, falling 0.7% on a quarter-on-quarter basis compared to expectations of a +0.1% expansion. The decline follows a 0.2% contraction in the second quarter and puts Hungary in a technical recession. On a year-on-year basis, preliminary GDP fell 0.8% (Est: +0.7%) versus +1.5% in 2Q.
  • Given this is the preliminary release, the statistics office does not provide a full breakdown of the data. It did, however, note that “The total performance of agriculture, industry and construction […] contributed to the decrease in the volume of gross domestic product compared to the same period of the previous year by approximately 2 percentage points.”
  • The disappointing figures briefly put EURHUF at a fresh cycle high of 405.90, though gains have since moderated with the cross close to flat at typing. Next resistance is marked at 408.77, the 61.8% retracement level of the Oct 2022 - Jun 2023 bear leg.
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  • Hungary’s Q3 GDP data came in well below expectations, falling 0.7% on a quarter-on-quarter basis compared to expectations of a +0.1% expansion. The decline follows a 0.2% contraction in the second quarter and puts Hungary in a technical recession. On a year-on-year basis, preliminary GDP fell 0.8% (Est: +0.7%) versus +1.5% in 2Q.
  • Given this is the preliminary release, the statistics office does not provide a full breakdown of the data. It did, however, note that “The total performance of agriculture, industry and construction […] contributed to the decrease in the volume of gross domestic product compared to the same period of the previous year by approximately 2 percentage points.”
  • The disappointing figures briefly put EURHUF at a fresh cycle high of 405.90, though gains have since moderated with the cross close to flat at typing. Next resistance is marked at 408.77, the 61.8% retracement level of the Oct 2022 - Jun 2023 bear leg.