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IEA Revise Down Surplus Forecasts. 

OIL
StoryEnergy BulletsCommodities
  • The International Energy Agency had reduced its forecasts for oil surplus in 2025.
  • The IEA reduced their forecasts for output from Russia and Iran, given the focus from the US on halting their shipments and imposition of sanctions, and revising up their assumptions for demand in Asia.
  • In signs that the focus on Russia is working, ship tracking data shows that over 50% of the oil tank listers blacklisted by the Biden administration are currently not shipping oil (as per BBG).
  • President Trump has issued a directive that tariffs must be assessed on a country by country basis, a move which may delay time for them to be imposed.
  • Oil prices had been decline that began in earnest on Wednesday steadied on the potentially delay and then were boosted by the IEA forecasts.   
  • WTI had opened the day at US$71.24 bbl and trended to a low of $70.22 before climbing to reach $71.44.
  • Brent followed a more modest trend opening at $74.97 and declining to $74.06, before reversing the losses to a close of $75.20.
  • It is anticipated that President Trump that further announcements on tariffs will be forthcoming and will potentially feed into volatility for oil prices today.  
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  • The International Energy Agency had reduced its forecasts for oil surplus in 2025.
  • The IEA reduced their forecasts for output from Russia and Iran, given the focus from the US on halting their shipments and imposition of sanctions, and revising up their assumptions for demand in Asia.
  • In signs that the focus on Russia is working, ship tracking data shows that over 50% of the oil tank listers blacklisted by the Biden administration are currently not shipping oil (as per BBG).
  • President Trump has issued a directive that tariffs must be assessed on a country by country basis, a move which may delay time for them to be imposed.
  • Oil prices had been decline that began in earnest on Wednesday steadied on the potentially delay and then were boosted by the IEA forecasts.   
  • WTI had opened the day at US$71.24 bbl and trended to a low of $70.22 before climbing to reach $71.44.
  • Brent followed a more modest trend opening at $74.97 and declining to $74.06, before reversing the losses to a close of $75.20.
  • It is anticipated that President Trump that further announcements on tariffs will be forthcoming and will potentially feed into volatility for oil prices today.