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IFO Business Sentiment Edges Up on Stronger Expectations

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)

GERMANY APR IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE 93.6 (FCST 93.4); MAR 93.2r

  • German business sentiment edged up for a sixth consecutive month in April, rising 0.3 points to 93.6 in the IFO Survey, boosted by improved expectations (up 1.2 points at 92.2).
  • This was slightly stronger than consensus expectations. Easing energy prices, cooling CPI and less-bleak global demand outlooks likely accounted for the increase, whilst the IFO Current Conditions index eased by 0.4 points to 95.0.
  • Manufacturing sentiment inched up in April, as expectations of future conditions rose considerably, outpacing worsening current conditions assessments.
  • However, with the German manufacturing PMI slipping further into contractionary territory and ZEW expectations taking a substantial hit in April, growth outlooks may be more stagnant.
  • Construction sentiment also improved, becoming less negative albeit the assessment of current conditions sinking to the lowest since 2015.
  • Retail trade and services sector sentiment cooled somewhat as future outlooks weakened.
  • Flash German GDP data is due on Friday. Consensus is looking for a small rebound at +0.2% q/q in Q1, which would also imply a technical recession had been avoided. Expectations remain divergent, with IFO’s Spring forecast pencilling in a -0.2% q/q decline.

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