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Ifo Survey Sees the German Economy "on the Cusp of Recession"

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)

GERMANY JUL IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE 88.6 (FCST 90.1); JUN 92.2r

GERMANY JUL IFO CURRENT ASSESSMENT 97.7 (FCST 97.5); JUN 99.4r

GERMANY JUL IFO EXPECTATIONS 80.3 (FCST 83.0); JUN 85.5r

  • The German Ifo survey saw another miss in both the business climate index and expectations in the July print.
  • The business climate index slipped by 3.6 points to 88.6, falling a further 1.5 points than anticipated to a June 2020 low. The business expectations index saw a 5.2-point fall, a further 2.7 points than expected whilst the assessment of the current business climate was marginally higher than forecasts, seeing a softer 1.7-point fall.
  • High energy prices and fears of gas shortages are feeding into further recessionary fears in Germany.
  • Manufacturing pessimism was at an April 2020 high, and new orders contracted for the first time in two years, confirming waning demand as outlooks cloud over.
  • The assessment of the current situation in construction nosedived to the lowest in over six years and all retail sectors turned to negative outlooks.
  • Following the surprise dive in the US services PMI on Friday, the Ifo services index saw services expectations collapse, undoing the June optimism boost.
  • With Ifo calling the German economy "on the cusp of a recession" and the service sector buckling, the survey saw no silver lining.

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