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Industrial Production Accelerates To 3.6% In December

HUNGARY
  • Yesterday, the NBH decided to leave its 1W Depo rate unchanged at 4.3% as expected, after raising it by 30bps last week.
  • Based on Barnabas Virag press conference last week, the NBH will now proceed with monthly hikes in the 1W depo rate and is likely to hike by another 30bps in February and March, which would levitate the effective policy rate to 4.9% in Q1.
  • However, the NBH could once again act via the 1-week facility if the HUF remains weak under the current environment.
  • The ‘core’ policy rate (currently at 2.9%) is expected to gradually converge towards the 1W depo rate through H1 2022.
  • Following last Tuesday’s decision, the NBH could proceed with 50bps hikes in the coming meetings, implying that the ‘core’ policy rate will be raised to 1W depo rate in four meetings (May 2022).
  • Selling pressure on HUF has eased in the past week, with EURHUF trading back below the 355 level in the past two days (after reaching a local high at 362.10 in the end of January). ST support to watch on the downside stands at 350.90. On the topside, resistance to watch above 355 stands at 357.40 (200DMA).
  • This morning, economic data showed that industrial production accelerated to 3.6% in December (vs. 3.5% exp.), up from revised 2.2% the previous month.
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