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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
- The bulk of today’s rise in nominal 10Y Tsy yields comes from real yields (+7.5bps of +9.5bps) but it only unwinds Friday’s move lower in real yields (green line below).
- Instead, the now 10bp increase in 10Y yields since prior to payrolls has come almost entirely from a higher 10Y inflation breakeven (yellow line), which at 2.79% is the highest since May 19.
- This is still low compared to mid-April highs above 3% but bucks the recent trend of moderating inflation expectations, and with a similar story in the smoother 5Y5Y measure at 2.43%.
- It comes despite Fed hike expectations firming to post May-FOMC highs of 202bps for the five meetings left this year.
UST 10Y nominal yield (white), real yield (green) and breakeven (yellow)Source: Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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