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Inflation Breakevens Drifting Higher, And Longer-Term Too

US
  • The partial retracement in the rally in Treasuries on the trio of weak US data releases leaves 5Y and 10Y yields currently -0.5bps and +0.9bps on the day.
  • There are two conflicting forces at play though, with real yields pulling back after recent strength whilst breakevens nudge higher by +3.6bps and +2.2bps for the 5Y and 10Y.
  • The 5Y breakeven of 2.81% is up from circa 2.65% last week, likely seeing some support from the rebound in oil prices off recent lows.
  • These increases from last week’s levels are an unlikely purely a commodity play though, as even though the longer-term 5Y5Y measure is little changed on the day, it has seen a similar climb over the past week to 2.35%, further above sustained recent lows between 2-2.1%.

5Y breakeven (pink), 5Y5Y (green) and WTI 1st future (orange)Source: Bloomberg

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