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Inflation data due 7:00GMT

UK DATA
  • Inflation data this morning is expected to show a further decline in headline CPI to 10.5%Y/Y in December (it was 10.7%Y/Y in November after peaking at 11.1% in October).
  • Core CPI is also expected to slow a tenth to 6.2%Y/Y in December. After reaching 6.5%Y/Y in both September and October a 6.2%Y/Y print would match July’s print.
  • A downside surprise would see the lowest print in six months while an upside surprise may be enough to push some MPC members who were on the fence between a 25bp and 50bp hike into the latter camp.
  • Looking ahead to the February meeting, there is currently around 45bp priced in (with between 40-50bp priced consistently since the December MPC meeting). This corresponds to around a 78% probability of a 50bp hike priced.
  • There is 77bp cumulatively priced by March and the terminal rate pricing now peaks in August at a cumulative 98bp.
  • Given market pricing, we think the market will be more sensitive to a softer print than a high print.
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