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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Inflation data due 7:00GMT
- Inflation data this morning is expected to show a further decline in headline CPI to 10.5%Y/Y in December (it was 10.7%Y/Y in November after peaking at 11.1% in October).
- Core CPI is also expected to slow a tenth to 6.2%Y/Y in December. After reaching 6.5%Y/Y in both September and October a 6.2%Y/Y print would match July’s print.
- A downside surprise would see the lowest print in six months while an upside surprise may be enough to push some MPC members who were on the fence between a 25bp and 50bp hike into the latter camp.
- Looking ahead to the February meeting, there is currently around 45bp priced in (with between 40-50bp priced consistently since the December MPC meeting). This corresponds to around a 78% probability of a 50bp hike priced.
- There is 77bp cumulatively priced by March and the terminal rate pricing now peaks in August at a cumulative 98bp.
- Given market pricing, we think the market will be more sensitive to a softer print than a high print.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.