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Inflation Expected to Moderate to 53.8% y/y (0700 GMT/1000 TRT)

TURKEY
  • Turkish inflation data is due today at 0700 GMT/1000 TRT, where prices are seen cooling from 64.27% y/y in December to 53.8% y/y in January, with the m/m figure expected at 4.00% (Prior: 1.18%).
  • Treasury and Finance Minister Nebati this week said January inflation will reflect the impact of higher minimum wages on consumer prices, but that deceleration will gain momentum from February onwards.
  • CACIB analysts estimate that sequential inflation has stood at about 35% over the past few months and that due to base effects, headline inflation should converge toward this. They see inflation possibly reaching close to 35% in April.
  • Speaking on Wednesday night in an interview with state broadcaster TRT, President Erdogan pledged further rate cuts ahead of his re-election bid this May. “There is a direct correlation between interest rates and inflation,” Erdogan said, citing the slowdown in Turkey’s consumer inflation as proof that his theory holds true. The comments have ramped up odds of a rate cut at the Feb 23 meeting, with Nebati adding yesterday that there will be no reversal of policy following the elections in May.

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