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Free AccessInflationary Pressures Continue To Narrow
German final November HICP was unrevised from the flash readings as expected at 2.3% Y/Y (3.0% Oct) and -0.7% M/M (-0.2% Oct). The final reading of CPI was also unrevised at +3.2% Y/Y (+3.8% Oct) and -0.4% M/M (0.0% Oct). Core CPI printed at +3.8% Y/Y (+4.3% Oct).
- This confirmed the lowest Headline CPI Y/Y reading since June 2021, and the fifth decline in a row.
- The split among the main components confirmed the flash reading. Looking at underlying drivers, fuel prices decreased noticeably -6.9% Y/Y, while household energy prices decreased -2.7% Y/Y. Light heating oil printed -19.4% Y/Y, natural gas -18.3% Y/Y. Electricity became more expensive at +1.6% Y/Y.
- Notable downside drivers for core inflation were package holidays prices at -11.4% Y/Y, train and bus tickets at -22.7% ("Deutschlandticket" in place since May 2023), and net rents at +2.0% Y/Y.
- The broad-based disinflation is well reflected in MNI’s HICP inflation breadth indicator, with now 29.5% of categories printing below 2% Y/Y inflation, the lowest value since March 2022 (26.2% prior). The percentage of categories printing at above 6% decreased to 33.6%, down from 39.5% in October. See chart below.
- Energy prices are expected to drive an uptick in the German December inflation reading, as base effects due to subsidies last year come into play.
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