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ING: Fed Hawkish Surprise Less Likely After Retail

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • US retail sales were more modest than expected in Nov at +0.3% M/M vs 0.8% consensus.
  • The control group was particularly soft, -0.1% M/M (0.8% cons), “a little worrying because it has a better correlation with the broader consumer spending data that feeds into GDP”.
  • ING note though that this comes after a very strong period, with nominal sales up 22% from Feb’20 before the pandemic struck, far stronger than in Europe.
  • Nonetheless, the softer print and uncertainty over Omicron should make it more likely that the Fed won't surprise with a shift to three rate hikes for 2022 in the dot plot.
  • On Omicron, “high frequency data on restaurant dining and air passenger travel already shows that consumer caution is returning”.
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